I actualyl think that we can't rule out the last option... there are a number of games on mafiascum with this setup. and this is a beginner game.. Nem might have made it overly simple as an intro. I personally think with the setup is going to be either 2,3 or 4 as 1 seems more advanced.. saying that I think town needs to lynch day 1. I keep my vote on hoshiro.