Beginner Mafia Game #1

[phil.™]

Because of what Pass said being true. We could use the extra day to gain more information before acting and still not give up anything on our end. Right now our best chance is 1 in 4, or 25% for those of you that can't do math, that we lynch a mafia and not a townie. To keep pushing this, is just pushing bad math and statistics, thus making you appear to be scummy.

Don't sass us with your numbers. You want to really look at numbers?

If the set up is the following and we do a lynch today:
2 power role, 4 town, 2 mafia - 25% chance we get mafia. 25% chance we hit a power role.
1 power role, 5 town, 2 mafia - 25% chance we get a mafia. 14% chance we hit a power role.
6 town, 2 mafia - 33% chance we hit a mafia.

Now let's look at more numbers shall we?
If we sit on our asses, do nothing and mafia does the following:
1 power role (whack's a power role), 4 town, 2 mafia - 28% chance we get mafia. 14% chance we hit a power role. But we just lost a power role.
2 power role, 3 town (whacks a town), 2 mafia - 28% chance we get a mafia. 28% chance we hit a power role. We're down 1 town. Oh well.
0 power role (whacks our only power role), 5 town, 2 mafia - 28% chance we hit mafia. Mafia most likely win.
5 town (whacks town), 2 mafia - 28% chance we hit mafia. Mafia most likely win.

So, why do you keep looking at it one sided? There's so many numbers to play with, and we'r just going to sit on our asses and let mafia run this shit?
Now that's scummy as fuck.

[Assassin]

Don't sass us with your numbers. You want to really look at numbers?

If the set up is the following and we do a lynch today:
2 power role, 4 town, 2 mafia - 25% chance we get mafia. 25% chance we hit a power role.
1 power role, 5 town, 2 mafia - 25% chance we get a mafia. 14% chance we hit a power role.
6 town, 2 mafia - 33% chance we hit a mafia.

Now let's look at more numbers shall we?
If we sit on our asses, do nothing and mafia does the following:
1 power role (whack's a power role), 4 town, 2 mafia - 28% chance we get mafia. 14% chance we hit a power role. But we just lost a power role.
2 power role, 3 town (whacks a town), 2 mafia - 28% chance we get a mafia. 28% chance we hit a power role. We're down 1 town. Oh well.
0 power role (whacks our only power role), 5 town, 2 mafia - 28% chance we hit mafia. Mafia most likely win.
5 town (whacks town), 2 mafia - 28% chance we hit mafia. Mafia most likely win.

So, why do you keep looking at it one sided? There's so many numbers to play with, and we'r just going to sit on our asses and let mafia run this shit?
Now that's scummy as fuck.

You're numbers still don't include the other 50% of us that are townies without power roles. Which is the buffer, and needed for the votes. Why do you think most games start on night 1 instead of day 1 now? Nothing gets done day one, and people have nothing to go off of.

[phil.™]

You're numbers still don't include the other 50% of us that are townies without power roles. Which is the buffer, and needed for the votes. Why do you think most games start on night 1 instead of day 1 now? Nothing gets done day one, and people have nothing to go off of.

I really don't like going in blind, as I have always said in each game. But with a small amount of players like this, a 25% shot at hitting mafia is better than the other games. That's why I want a lynch. I rather gamble, than sit around and let mafia have a shot while we do nothing.

In my honest opinion, I feel it isn't a 6-2 set up. That's just shit for town.
I feel like there's 2 power roles (1 cop and 1 doc) or atleast a cop. Having a a 1 power role doc is kind of useless.

[hoshiro-]

I feel like there's 2 power roles (1 cop and 1 doc) or atleast a cop. Having a a 1 power role doc is kind of useless.

So by what you're saying I'm guessing you don't have a power role, right phil?

[phil.™]

So by what you're saying I'm guessing you don't have a power role, right phil?

You don't wanna say too much either, this narrows down who is who for mafia at night.

[hoshiro-]

Seeing as trig isn't really participating much, for reasons I don't know. And also with him being the first to vote for me, and being second to vote for assassin (after Phil), I really feel like he is being real scummy. vote trig

- - - Updated - - -

Haha I'm asian, I'm always fishy

[Nemesis]

Current Vote count before I go home for the day:
Assassin: 3 (2 votes left)
Trig: 2 (3 votes left)
Phil: 1 (4 votes left)
No Lynch: 1 (4 votes left)

Seeing as trig isn't really participating much, for reasons I don't know. And also with him being the first to vote for me, and being second to vote for assassin (after Phil), I really feel like he is being real scummy. vote trig

Just a note on this, try to make your vote on its own line, it's easy to miss counting when it's that far to the right.

[Passarelli]

6 town, 2 mafia - 33.3% chance we hit a mafia.

How you figured that out is very very wrong. It is still a 25% chance.

If we have 2 power roles, Scum has a 33.3% chance to hit one of them tonight.
If we have 1 power role, Scum has a 16.6% chance to hit it night 1.

If we have a cop and we lynch today, they would have a 33.3% (2/6 [the cop doesn't investigate himself]) chance to find scum tonight--since we lose after the 2nd mislynch we would lose if we do not hit scum today or tomorrow.
If we did not lynch today the cop would have a 28.5% (2/7) chance of finding scum tonight and a 40% (2/5) chance of finding scum night 2.

If we have a doctor and we lynch today, they would have a 16.6% (1/6) chance of blocking the kill night 1 and a 25% (1/4) chance of blocking the kill night 2. If he blocked either kill we would have day 3 with 5 people.
If we no lynch today, the doctor would have a 14.3% (1/7) chance of blocking the kill night 1, a 20% chance of blocking the kill night 2. Day 3 would have 5 people and would lose immediately after the lynch. If the doctor blocked a kill, he would have a 25% chance (1/4) to block the kill and keep the game going.

The doctor's odds suffer due to a no lynch and requires him to block 2 kills in order to extend the game whereas the cop has 2 chances and better odds of finding scum night 2.

Statistics are fun! >_>

I'm pretty sure I got those numbers correct, I just woke up and am still half asleep though.