Beginner Mafia Game #1

[Assassin]

Don't sass us with your numbers. You want to really look at numbers?

If the set up is the following and we do a lynch today:
2 power role, 4 town, 2 mafia - 25% chance we get mafia. 25% chance we hit a power role.
1 power role, 5 town, 2 mafia - 25% chance we get a mafia. 14% chance we hit a power role.
6 town, 2 mafia - 33% chance we hit a mafia.

Now let's look at more numbers shall we?
If we sit on our asses, do nothing and mafia does the following:
1 power role (whack's a power role), 4 town, 2 mafia - 28% chance we get mafia. 14% chance we hit a power role. But we just lost a power role.
2 power role, 3 town (whacks a town), 2 mafia - 28% chance we get a mafia. 28% chance we hit a power role. We're down 1 town. Oh well.
0 power role (whacks our only power role), 5 town, 2 mafia - 28% chance we hit mafia. Mafia most likely win.
5 town (whacks town), 2 mafia - 28% chance we hit mafia. Mafia most likely win.

So, why do you keep looking at it one sided? There's so many numbers to play with, and we'r just going to sit on our asses and let mafia run this shit?
Now that's scummy as fuck.

You're numbers still don't include the other 50% of us that are townies without power roles. Which is the buffer, and needed for the votes. Why do you think most games start on night 1 instead of day 1 now? Nothing gets done day one, and people have nothing to go off of.

[Passarelli]

6 town, 2 mafia - 33.3% chance we hit a mafia.

How you figured that out is very very wrong. It is still a 25% chance.

If we have 2 power roles, Scum has a 33.3% chance to hit one of them tonight.
If we have 1 power role, Scum has a 16.6% chance to hit it night 1.

If we have a cop and we lynch today, they would have a 33.3% (2/6 [the cop doesn't investigate himself]) chance to find scum tonight--since we lose after the 2nd mislynch we would lose if we do not hit scum today or tomorrow.
If we did not lynch today the cop would have a 28.5% (2/7) chance of finding scum tonight and a 40% (2/5) chance of finding scum night 2.

If we have a doctor and we lynch today, they would have a 16.6% (1/6) chance of blocking the kill night 1 and a 25% (1/4) chance of blocking the kill night 2. If he blocked either kill we would have day 3 with 5 people.
If we no lynch today, the doctor would have a 14.3% (1/7) chance of blocking the kill night 1, a 20% chance of blocking the kill night 2. Day 3 would have 5 people and would lose immediately after the lynch. If the doctor blocked a kill, he would have a 25% chance (1/4) to block the kill and keep the game going.

The doctor's odds suffer due to a no lynch and requires him to block 2 kills in order to extend the game whereas the cop has 2 chances and better odds of finding scum night 2.

Statistics are fun! >_>

I'm pretty sure I got those numbers correct, I just woke up and am still half asleep though.

[Wolfenstinger]

im just waiting for trig to say something before i cast my vote

Props to your decision making

- - - Updated - - -

and then I realize theres a couple more pages after posting... boy waking up posting first thing not good idea for me...


Anyways - @phil
You smell still. Ass doesn't smell. He's just a whore to my eyes. Like Passarelli. AKA my Day 1 decision making gets pretty wonky to where even I couldn't tell you any other exact reasons as to why I vote until either I'm given concrete data or something is said and it seems extremely weird that I want to slap it off a cliff.

Either way tho - lynch train might roll towards Assassin in end. May change vote later to join it, may not. idk.

[Passarelli]

You're numbers still don't include the other 50% of us that are townies without power roles. Which is the buffer, and needed for the votes. Why do you think most games start on night 1 instead of day 1 now? Nothing gets done day one, and people have nothing to go off of.

Day 1 is meant for discussion and a lynch which gives meaning for peoples' night powers and data for all subsequent days. Night starts give no data unless you are Cyber and use previous games to guess who did what.


Also, back to what I've been saying already said:
Please look at this, this, and--if you want but not necessary--this game.

- - - Updated - - -

Props to your decision making

- - - Updated - - -

and then I realize theres a couple more pages after posting... boy waking up posting first thing not good idea for me...


Anyways - @phil
You smell still. Ass doesn't smell. He's just a whore to my eyes. Like Passarelli.

Only for you Wolf!

[phil.™]

You're numbers still don't include the other 50% of us that are townies without power roles. Which is the buffer, and needed for the votes. Why do you think most games start on night 1 instead of day 1 now? Nothing gets done day one, and people have nothing to go off of.

I really don't like going in blind, as I have always said in each game. But with a small amount of players like this, a 25% shot at hitting mafia is better than the other games. That's why I want a lynch. I rather gamble, than sit around and let mafia have a shot while we do nothing.

In my honest opinion, I feel it isn't a 6-2 set up. That's just shit for town.
I feel like there's 2 power roles (1 cop and 1 doc) or atleast a cop. Having a a 1 power role doc is kind of useless.

[Assassin]

Props to your decision making

- - - Updated - - -

and then I realize theres a couple more pages after posting... boy waking up posting first thing not good idea for me...


Anyways - @phil
You smell still. Ass doesn't smell. He's just a whore to my eyes. Like Passarelli. AKA my Day 1 decision making gets pretty wonky to where even I couldn't tell you any other exact reasons as to why I vote until either I'm given concrete data or something is said and it seems extremely weird that I want to slap it off a cliff.

Either way tho - lynch train might roll towards Assassin in end. May change vote later to join it, may not. idk.

If I get voted (like every other game we have played) you will lose a townie. Just saying. Nothing that I have said or done has been scummy, just logical. If logic breaks this game, then why are we even playing?

[Wolfenstinger]

If I get voted (like every other game we have played) you will lose a townie. Just saying. Nothing that I have said or done has been scummy, just logical. If logic breaks this game, then why are we even playing?

With that logic, you might even say that when you are mafia one game and then what? We ignore you till day 2 because you must be the killer!


Either way, I'm in no rush still. Somebody will die, whether its a townie or not. And then night will hit where we hope "[INSERT COP HERE]" gets something or nothing at all while mafia begin the killings. I keep this in mind as well because right now likely targets will be Phil, Pass, Assassin, or Hoshiro- even. Either way, it's going to be 1 dead today, 1 dead tonight. Hell I get lynched for causing some confusion Day 1; then whatever. I'd just wish ya'll luck in the long run while i watch

[Assassin]

so are we all good with going no lynch then? or do we all just bandwagon someone.

[phil.™]

so are we all good with going no lynch then? or do we all just bandwagon someone.

Bandwagon someone. I dont feel comfortable with mafia going into the night without us lynching anyone.
Best case scenario, we lynch a mafia tonight. Hopefully there is a cop or sheriff, and they target scum by chance. Day 2, he outs himself and out's scum. Bam, win for town.

But that's best case scenario, and wishful thinking lol.

[Wolfenstinger]

So we bandwagon Phil so he can't have a chance of winning at all right? YES PHIL that might be my only goal to get you killed before game ends...