Mafia Game: Monster Mash (Hosted by Sin and What)

[CYBER]

... how did this monster game turn into a lonely handjobs game?
And why haven't I been included in this?

Happy time, 50 pesos.



-------------


ok let's see:
we have 4 STARTING scum.
we started in day mode, so no conversions happened yet.
so we are still at 4 scum.

Mikey and assassin being the mason duo ( and most likely targets for the night if WW is gambling.)

we are 12 people. excluding the dynamic duo, we have 4 out of 10 people MORE likely to be scum.

Im speaking here on MY behalf, so don't go thinking i'm shoving unconfirmed info, but i know "I" am town.

That leaves me with 4 out of 9 people to chose from for about a 45% chance to hit a scum.

so obviously the only "logical" choice here.
Vote Brett.


Because he's in nemesis's shoes. yup. seems perfectly logical to me.

[phil.™]

I am not convinced on anyone still, well 1 person I have my eye on.
Votes on bm, i'm not convinced. He does say the obvious stuff, still needed to be said. That doesnt really make him scummy. Most of his posts were him and mikey fighting. Which was amusing.
Votes on minj; as i stated in my last post, his game play is too out there if you will. If he was werewolf or mafia, he wouldn't be splashing too much water.

Cyber, your take on probability and chances, that goes for all of us on the same probability, you would be part of that list. We all can say i know "I" am town, leaving a 4/9 45% chance to hit scum.

[minjae]

I know I am town. Which apparently leaves a HIGHER % chance to hit scum.

- - - Updated - - -

Since we know Cyber is town, and Phil is town.

- - - Updated - - -

*WINK WINK*

[Assassin]

I know I am town. Which apparently leaves a HIGHER % chance to hit scum.

- - - Updated - - -

Since we know Cyber is town, and Phil is town.

- - - Updated - - -

*WINK WINK*

Seems legit.

[hoshiro-]

So from all that I could gather we only know one thing, and that is that everyone is town.

[CYBER]

I am not convinced on anyone still, well 1 person I have my eye on.
Votes on bm, i'm not convinced. He does say the obvious stuff, still needed to be said. That doesnt really make him scummy. Most of his posts were him and mikey fighting. Which was amusing.
Votes on minj; as i stated in my last post, his game play is too out there if you will. If he was werewolf or mafia, he wouldn't be splashing too much water.

Cyber, your take on probability and chances, that goes for all of us on the same probability, you would be part of that list. We all can say i know "I" am town, leaving a 4/9 45% chance to hit scum.

yes i know that about the last part.
that's why i said " iam speaking for myself here, for my OWN math"


Basically, for EACH town leftover in that list, there's 45% chance to hit a scum.
For each SCUM in that list, there's only 2/9 chance to hit the OTHER scum faction. another 1/9 being their own partner. and the rest if a roughly 66% to kill off a random town.


hence my vote on brett is very much at 45% chance to hit a scum. I like my odds for now.



i know this doesn't make much sense, hell i got lost in my own reasoning there for a second. but the point is: from each TOWN perspective, whether it's you, me , or another town. there's exactly 45% chance of hitting a scum, which aren't that bad of an odds, especialyl when if you get near L-1 and someone claims some shit.
Then the numbers rise...

[Passarelli]

yes i know that about the last part.
that's why i said " iam speaking for myself here, for my OWN math"


Basically, for EACH town leftover in that list, there's 45% chance to hit a scum.
For each SCUM in that list, there's only 2/9 chance to hit the OTHER scum faction. another 1/9 being their own partner. and the rest if a roughly 66% to kill off a random town.


hence my vote on brett is very much at 45% chance to hit a scum. I like my odds for now.



i know this doesn't make much sense, hell i got lost in my own reasoning there for a second. but the point is: from each TOWN perspective, whether it's you, me , or another town. there's exactly 45% chance of hitting a scum, which aren't that bad of an odds, especialyl when if you get near L-1 and someone claims some shit.
Then the numbers rise...

Cyber, scum's chances of hitting a power role go up as well if we force someone else to claim and that is why we should just lynch Minjae. I'm starting to be weary of you for trying to get a new wagon started when 3 people have already claimed, especially when 1 claimed VT which is what each of the scum would be claiming.

[brett friggin favre]

... how did this monster game turn into a lonely handjobs game?
And why haven't I been included in this?

Happy time, 50 pesos.



-------------


ok let's see:
we have 4 STARTING scum.
we started in day mode, so no conversions happened yet.
so we are still at 4 scum.

Mikey and assassin being the mason duo ( and most likely targets for the night if WW is gambling.)

we are 12 people. excluding the dynamic duo, we have 4 out of 10 people MORE likely to be scum.

Im speaking here on MY behalf, so don't go thinking i'm shoving unconfirmed info, but i know "I" am town.

That leaves me with 4 out of 9 people to chose from for about a 45% chance to hit a scum.

so obviously the only "logical" choice here.
Vote Brett.


Because he's in nemesis's shoes. yup. seems perfectly logical to me.

sorry i haven't been too active in this game. i read up on the thread but i just don't feel like i have anything of value to add. i have no info from night 1 which could add anything to the discussion. pretty much everything's been said. i'm just kinda waiting around for there to be a consensus and hopefully we'll have more to go on for day 2.

[DJ_MikeyRevile]

Cyber, scum's chances of hitting a power role go up as well if we force someone else to claim and that is why we should just lynch Minjae. I'm starting to be weary of you for trying to get a new wagon started when 3 people have already claimed, especially when 1 claimed VT which is what each of the scum would be claiming.

Minjae never claimed. The closest thing to a claim he made was saying 'town needs me'

[Assassin]

which we all know is probably just blowing smoke.