Mafia Game: Donner Party 2: Don Harder

[CYBER]

realllly wish we managed to get at least 1 cannibal out recently to make things easier...
If trigger/BM was the dietetician, i need to go back through the thread and check on his interactions with Blade, as well as check if their first night's clear was on Rosie or someone else.... Because of What's theory about BM trying to make me RS with him... which I failed to believe in because i was more suspecting of trig to let my guard down. Then again, me trying to RS dietician wouldn't have been such a gr8 plan lol.

[BladeTwinSwords]

Well what has me really curious is that there was only 1 death tonight.

[What]

Not role swap you dumbass, I think he was trying to get you to claim to out yourself as Mafia, since if he got a read on Blade and got another person to out themselves, he would have two people dead to rights in one day.

- - - Updated - - -

Also Cyber's reasoning of "Well he may well be scum, but not necessarily the worse kind of scum, so lets just keep looking" is perhaps the scummiest thing I have seen written this entire game.

[CYBER]

Well what has me really curious is that there was only 1 death tonight.

There's 2 options i can think of.
Either mafia/vig shot the SK this night and he lost a vest but didnt die.
OR
One of Pass or Assassin was a cannibal.

So now i need to go back, check for cannibal traits i guess to see if any of the two hinted at something or slipped at snmthn, check trigger/bm interactions as well.

TAKE THIS TO HEART. if a cannibal did in fact bit the dust, we might be either an SK down, OR we lost our own vig, and now it might seem we lost our own cop..
Definitely not a mafia down because it wouldn't stop the fact that the entire faction would still have a kill to account for it.

Early on, i was wondering if the vig simply didn't shoot... but it's been a few nights now and we never had THREE kils,. so either people are killing eachother at night or the vig didn't shoot/still isnt shooting, or the sk died very early on and the vig was actually shooting ppl all along until yesterday.

WHICH BRINGS ME to What's comment:

Also Cyber's reasoning of "Well he may well be scum, but not necessarily the worse kind of scum, so lets just keep looking" is perhaps the scummiest thing I have seen written this entire game.

WRONG.
depending on the current player count, it might not be a priority to randomly lynch a possible SK, but to actually try to pinpoint a mafia member.
We got lucky this night that there was only 1 kill, otherwise this shit would be even more fucked up.
I get it that we might lose 2 players tonight, but tomorrow we might actually need to only lose one town Or ZERO towns.
You see, we still have the chance that mafia and sk hit eachother, instead of town.

But if we take out an SK, then we are garanteeing that at least one of them (the mafia) be shooting at town instead of worrying about killing their arch nemesis.

see, if both mafia members are still alive now, then we might be getting outnumbered a lot sooner now...

but WE know that if mafia shot someone, and they didnt die, they'll be betting on the possibility that their target was the SK.
Mafia needs to kill the SK as he is the scariest person against them, considering that a Vig might be more restrainted with who he's actually shooting and might hold off on shooting (as the possibility suggests early on), an SK doesn't care.
So this night, they might have to reserve their shot for the sk instread of a townie...

IF we kill the SK, mafia's worst enemy right now, then we're leaving the possibility of a dynamic duo to lead town and have free reign to kill and hammer easier tomorrow.
If we do NOT lynch the sk, but instead try to aim for mafia behaviour, then we are forcing the mafia to kill off who they think is the SK, otherwise they'll risk in being tagged to death another night tomorrow.
Hell, the SK needs mafia dead too, he might end up killing one of them down the road.... And the more cannibals that show up at night, the more info we get.,

This goes double important if we lost our vig and dietician, as lynching the possible SK will leave us with a GG for mafia no matter what as we wont be able to have any night actions , and any bad vote will result in gg.

MAFIA needs to kill SK, they have to. Which is why i'm leaning more and more to the fact that scribble might be a mafia and enticing us to kill blade, who BM announced as a cannibal from mafia's point of view(i.e either vig, or sk if we trust in BM)...

IF mafia didn't hit an SK, assuming we're following Nemesis's retarded rules about roleblocking not blocking mafia kills, then that means that a carnivor died between last night and this night.
Ergo pass/assassin was a cannibal. And unless the same person got shot twice that day, and we didn't see much wagoning of either of them, then it's highly doubtful that assPass was an SK. Because a failed mafia shot on them the first night would have pinpointed the SK earlier to mafia... and they'd have tried to wagon either pass or ass earlier.
Sop i'm starting to think that AssPass (one of them) was our vig...
Which means that if BM called blade Shia leBoeuf just before dying, then in the EYES OF MAFIA, BM's the sk.

Which means they still have to shoot him twice.
Let them waste their shot on him. and let us worry about at leastr breakig down the dynamic duo, if both still alive.

THAT is my conern and THAT is why i suggested what i suggested,

So NO, it's not scummy, i just refuse to get tunnel visioned by scribble and you to kill off someone who might be third party SK *(but still easily taken care of when the time comes) as opposed to letting possibly 2 mafia members control town and sway the votes like that.


- - - Updated - - -

oh and. if i happen to die over night,
Lynch anyone that claims Vig

- - - Updated - - -

because they might be fake claiming a role they ate, like assPass possibility i was talkin about.

IF the vig is still alive for wtvr reason now, its their choice to kill the SK or shoot someone else.
But don't make it obvious if you're taking care of an sk or not, let mafia be FORCED to waste thier shot on him , assuming they found him.

[What]

- - - Updated - - -

oh and. if i happen to die over night,
Lynch anyone that claims Vig

- - - Updated - - -

Post 336.

[StarsMine]

One death seems very odd as well, there should be up to 3 on any given night.
Im very confused by black mages hammer, why in gods name did he hammer and say that at the same time, if he was a canable, he should have gone for it, he should have pushed for it, its a 3/4 chance of getting a target you want dead. Are we to assume BM is an awful player as well, if he had that information the odds were stupidly heavy in his favor.

[What]

Cyber, your reasoning doesn't make sense. First, we should wait for Scribble to elucidate his reasoning, but we can not discount the fact that Blade was identified as a Cannibal, which means he is either vig, mafia, or sk. Its not a random shot in the dark on him, and I don't understand why you are making something that is pretty clear appear to be so complicated.

There are 6 people left, possibly 3 scum and 3 town. Your "strategy" relies on the mafia knowing who the SK is, and that they give a fuck about killing him, because, they could easily mobilize votes to out him during the day. With 6 people now, we can easily have 2 people die tonight if the SK is alive, meaning we go into tomorrow with 3 people, who could all be scum, or with 1 townie left, etc. If we take out the SK, which again I don't understand your assumption that blade is the SK and not Mafia, but if we take out the SK, then its 1 death likely tonight, unless the vig feels confident in taking a shot, which means:
SK is lynched (using your assumption that Blade is SK and not mafia)
5 go into night, 2 scum left, 1 townie dies, vig doesn't take a shot, next day is 2 v 2 town is still borked.

Or we lynch Mafia, (Which could well be Blade)
5 go into night, 2 scum left, 2 people die, could be scum or townie, and provided Vig doesn't take a shot, 3 the next day. Unless scum hits scum, the town is still borked.

Therefore the only chance we have is to hit scum today, regardless of SK or mafia, and for the Vig to be alive and hit the right target. We also could still have the roleblocker alive, meaning some death could also be prevented. At this point though, it is reliant on alive town power roles making the right choices at night.

I can not understand the defense of someone who was called out as being a cannibal in favor of what essentially would be a random shot to try to hit a different kind of scum. Mafia does not need to murder the SK at night, they can vote him off, or if he is RB be called out by town, the Vig could hit him, etc. Having the SK alive IS a problem for the town, and this again is all on the assumption that Blade is the SK which is some reasoning I don't understand on your part as to why he could not possibly be mafia.

And I brought it up above, but you keep leaving out the roleblock.

- - - Updated - - -

One death seems very odd as well, there should be up to 3 on any given night.
Im very confused by black mages hammer, why in gods name did he hammer and say that at the same time, if he was a canable, he should have gone for it, he should have pushed for it, its a 3/4 chance of getting a target you want dead. Are we to assume BM is an awful player as well, if he had that information the odds were stupidly heavy in his favor.

BM made a big deal about how we can not trust claims, so if he comes out and say, I am dietician, Blade is Cannibal, he would be condemned by his own words. He likely said it at the hammer just to get the info out there in case something happened to him at night, which it did. And if it didn't well he would have more info to share the following day, in able to vindicate his position.

- - - Updated - - -

The only reason to not believe BM's claim is to assume he was Scum, which if that was the case, then he is dead now, Blade would likely be SK, using the assumption that mafia tried to kill him and failed, meaning to lynch Blade would leave only 1 scum left, a mafia member. This appears to be Cyber's reasoning for thinking Blade is the SK but it makes no sense then as to why he should not be lynched today.

And Roleblock can totally block kills, if not what the fuck is its purpose in this game? To only fuck with the dietician?

[CYBER]

Put on your reading glasses, this is going to be a big one, because What's not seeing the big picture here....

Cyber, your reasoning doesn't make sense. First, we should wait for Scribble to elucidate his reasoning, but we can not discount the fact that Blade was identified as a Cannibal, which means he is either vig, mafia, or sk. Its not a random shot in the dark on him, and I don't understand why you are making something that is pretty clear appear to be so complicated.

//Ok So since you trust in BM's final words, then Blade is either Scum or VIG. no other option. correct?

There are 6 people left, possibly 3 scum and 3 town. Your "strategy" relies on the mafia knowing who the SK is, and that they give a fuck about killing him, because, they could easily mobilize votes to out him during the day.

//Whether they mobilize them during the day or during the night, they are still MOBILIZING THEM against the SCUM, instead of mobilizing them against a random townie...

With 6 people now, we can easily have 2 people die tonight if the SK is alive, meaning we go into tomorrow with 3 people, who could all be scum, or with 1 townie left, etc.

// YES, it's a possibility that Mafia and SK end up shooting town instead of one of them shooting eachother. But it's a POSSIBILITY. Taking out one of the enemy factions altogether from the equation basically means that the mafia will have no other target BUT the town to shoot at. So although there's chance of X% of 2 townies dying, there's also a chance of Y% >X% that mafia shoots the SK again (if that's what explains the lack of second death), OR that the SK shoots a mafia by luck, which is STILL better than a 100% that mafia shoots a townie while BOTH stay alive the next day and BOTH do other shit the next night and outnumber us easily,.

If we take out the SK, which again I don't understand your assumption that blade is the SK and not Mafia,

// THAT is purely speculation. He can most likely be an SK or vig on the fact that he did not die yet. Assuming the vig is still alive which is doubtful as well.
If he was a mafia member, and painted as a cannibal. Then he would have been killed by the SK at the very least.
But then you'll say "OH BUT CYBER, SK might have a more priority to kill Blackmage bcos he's the gunsmith" . So blade might be a mafia still.
I would tell you : YES you are absolutely correct. EXCEPT that the vig is not concerned with killing the gunsmith blade, and our vig would have, or fucking SHOULD have went after blade. But since blade is alive, then that means that either the vig is dead, the vig got roleblock (honestly? the chances of that fiasco?) or that blade himself is the vig.
IT just sounds MORE logical and statistically more probable that blade is either the SK or the vig, rather than being a mafia.
Which is why i'm holding up on lynching him yet, as there's ANOTHEr plan in mind.

but if we take out the SK, then its 1 death likely tonight, unless the vig feels confident in taking a shot, which means:

// You are assuming that our vig is still alive... we do have 1-less death accounted for ever since that person died.
But for the sake of argument, let's PRETEND that the vig didn't bite the dust. and that both the sk and vig are alive, and even worst case scenario: that both mafia members are alive.

SK is lynched (using your assumption that Blade is SK and not mafia)
5 go into night, 2 scum left, 1 townie dies, vig doesn't take a shot, next day is 2 v 2 town is still borked.

// So , IF blade is SK, and IF SK is lynched. We lose. that's exactly the logic you are using. correct? So lynching the sk , no matter how bad the other alternative is, leaves us tied with mafia.
result: TOWN LOSES NO MATTER WHAT if the vig is dead.

Or we lynch Mafia, (Which could well be Blade)

// Again, i personally think blade is an unlike mafia candidate just because he's still alive.... But i'll go with your logic sure.

5 go into night, 2 scum left, 2 people die, could be scum or townie, and provided Vig doesn't take a shot, 3 the next day. Unless scum hits scum, the town is still borked.

// WRONG. I'm going to split that into different cases, all assuming that there is no Vig alive (worst case scenario)
Case 1: 5 ppl in (1 mafia, 1 sk, 3 T). Mafia and SK kill 2 different Ts: Result: 1 Mafia 1 SK alive. Result: Town loses.
Case 2: 5 ppl in (1 mafia, 1 sk, 3 T). MAFIA and SK BOTH shoot the same townie. 1 mafia, 1 sk, and 2 Ts alive. Town can only survive with a NO lynch and mafia/sk kill eachother at night.
Case 3: 5 ppl in (1 mafia, 1 sk, 3 T). Mafia has to focus on killing SK. Sk kils a townie: Result: 1 mafia, 2 Ts alive. TOWN HAS A LYLO chance.
Case 4: 5 ppl in (1 mafia, 1 sk, 3 T). Mafia doesn't care for SK and kills townies. SK randomly kills Mafia member. SK alive. 2 Ts alive. TOWN HAS A LYLO chance!!!!!!!
Case 5: 5 ppl in (1 mafia, 1 sk, 3 T). MAFIA AND SK shoot eachother by luck. 3 Ts alive. Town WINS!!!!!!!!

That's assuming the VIG IS DEAD, or the vig does NOT shoot. aka. This path gives town a chance to survive EVEN IF the vig dies. Otherwise, your path of killing the SK leaves town ZERO chances of winning no matter what, unless we buy into some bs roleblock claim, assuming the roleblocker gets lucky to begin with, and assuming we establish that there's only the one faction that can still kill, and that faction 's killer got blocked. Otherwise, the roleblocker might ignore a killer based on false positive.

IF VIG is alive and SHOOTS as well, Then we increase our odds of hiting one of the scum. That's great.

You might say it increases our odds to hit a townie as well, but honestly, the vig killing a townie at this rate is just overkill due to town being borked no matter what if 2 or more townies die.

Now all this is assuming that the vig is alive right?
Well riddle me this. What do we know for a FACT? The FACT is that IF the vig is alive, then the VIG knows if he's blade or not... duh.
so the VIG knows that blade is either mafia or scum. (which is why i'm debating if vig is still alive because he'd have shot blade...maybe he was the only one that shot blade, or maybe he IS blade).
But here's what i say. BLADE is a cannibal. IF blade is NOT the vig and the vig is alive, the VIG could have a target in mind to garantee a scum kill, and efffectively bringing us down to 1 scum tomorrow and X amount of townies (cases posted above).

IF blade is an SK, then lynching him = lose the game.
IF blade is a vig, then lynching him = lower chances to win, and he's dead at night.
IF blade is a mafia member, then he should be dead, but it would narrow down the mafia partner (if alive) to ME, and the 2 afk fucks (zambi and stars i think?)

Therefore the only chance we have is to hit scum today, regardless of SK or mafia, and for the Vig to be alive and hit the right target. We also could still have the roleblocker alive, meaning some death could also be prevented. At this point though, it is reliant on alive town power roles making the right choices at night.

// WRONG. Hitting SK = loss. that's by your own scenario above.
Hitting Mafia = chance for town to win WITHOUT a vig, and more chances WITH a vig.

I can not understand the defense of someone who was called out as being a cannibal in favor of what essentially would be a random shot to try to hit a different kind of scum.

// BECAUSE town WILL lose no matter what unless we got a confirmation that the vig IS alive. IF the vig was alive, i'd take it with a grain of salt to kill blade, and then know for a fact that mafia will kill the vig at night unless roleblocker gets lucky.
But since we do not have it on authority that the vig is ALIVE. then we're screwed. And a vig claim tomorrow might not get believed due to scum fake claim chance.

Mafia does not need to murder the SK at night, they can vote him off,

//AGAIN YES. But that means they're killing a scum, NOT town.

or if he is RB be called out by town, the Vig could hit him, etc. Having the SK alive IS a problem for the town, and this again is all on the assumption that Blade is the SK which is some reasoning I don't understand on your part as to why he could not possibly be mafia.

// Whether he is or not, that's besides the point. I'm not argueing if we should kill blade or not. I'm argueing if we should kill the SK or NOT, assuming we know who the SK is.

And I brought it up above, but you keep leaving out the roleblock.

// Yes, a roleblocker could BUY US A DAY, and then we'd be at the exactly same situation we are tonight, but with 1 less player.
So i'm not COUNTING on the roleblock, but it can be combined with other actions, such as the dead of a scum over night, whether by their own hands, their own enemy or a vig..

AND HONESTLY?
The roleblocker should have honestly fucking came clean by now and given out info.
Seriously fuck. If the roleblocker dies, then we wont be able to AT LEAST pinpoint and exclude certain people from being the attackers of a certain night ... it would just leave us some info, much like how BM did it... can u imagine if BM died and didnt fucking say jack shit? we'd be even more confused now.

Roleblocker WONT be a target for mafia as a priority. Their priority was the cop (dead allegedly) and now the SK, because the roleblocker can only buy time and might get called out for possibly being scum fake claiming a dead person's role... and they will probably get lynched etc...
The roleblocker is almost useless unless they buy some times and don't get lynched tomorrow.
NOW , if you strongly believe that town has a confirmed cannibal target, the roleblocke SHOULD fess up his blocks just because there's a 2/3 chances of dying. tonight . give or take. but 100% chance of him being dead the NEXT night, when the mafia or sk doesn't have anyone else better to kill except that roleblocker....
So again,.,,,. that's my opinion, feel free to take it any way you want.

BM made a big deal about how we can not trust claims, so if he comes out and say, I am dietician, Blade is Cannibal, he would be condemned by his own words. He likely said it at the hammer just to get the info out there in case something happened to him at night, which it did. And if it didn't well he would have more info to share the following day, in able to vindicate his position.

// I will accept this scenario. Very reasonable considering the witch hunts here.
[QUOTE=What;204339]The only reason to not believe BM's claim is to assume he was Scum, which if that was the case, then he is dead now, Blade would likely be SK, using the assumption that mafia tried to kill him and failed, meaning to lynch Blade would leave only 1 scum left, a mafia member. This appears to be Cyber's reasoning for thinking Blade is the SK but it makes no sense then as to why he should not be lynched today.

And Roleblock can totally block kills, if not what the fuck is its purpose in this game? To only fuck with the dietician?

// Nemesis's usually a tool about roleblocks. Go check with him. Roleblocks in HIS mind can block sk kills and actions, but NOT mafia faction kills... because he's like that...
BOTTOM LINE IS. Killing the sk today, whoever the SK is, = town death .
Bottom line is, we need to kill a mafia.
Bottom line is, if the vig is alive, then it's either blade, or someone that shot blade.
bottom line is, if the vig is alive, and it's NOT blade, then it would have shot blade, which means blade couldn't be a MAFIA member but an SK, if the earlier ifs are corret.
Bottom line is, IF the vig is NOT alive, then blade can be either SK or mafia correct. If he's mafia, then What and Scribble are NOT his partners. Cyber, Zambi or stars ARE his partners. Otherwise, he's SK, and we should keep him alive.
--------------------
tl:dr:
So WHAT, it all comes down to what Blade is. He's at the core of it all (thanks to BM... otherwise we'd be fucked...). Which we had more fucking information, such as roleblock blocks if they can clear someone... because right now our chances are slim but if we kill the SK( no matter who it is), our chances are NONE.
All this was not to defend blade btw. I could care less. I'm defending my idea of keeping the SK alive instead of someone else. Assuming no claims are made.



SO blade
What are you.
We know you're a cannibal, and they want you to get lynched.
What is your argument against this. we KNOW you're a cannibal,
Now are you a vig, an sk or mafia.
Answer correctly and honestly, because one of us here WILL know if you're lying.

[What]

I may read all of that later, but not now.

Simply put. BM outs Blade as Cannibal. 3/4 chance he is scum. You advocate not lynching him, feeling its some sort of mafia gambit, which relies on BM having been Mafia. He is dead, meaning 2 scum at most left, not killing scum today is a stupid, stupid idea. You're either way overthinking this, or trying desperately to protect Blade to get one more night with him alive.

[StarsMine]

BM calling blade out though at the end makes no sense. If he knew it was beyond fucking stupid to hammer rosie, yes be skeptical of claims but you cant just pull that out of your ass at the end with no hints of that knowledge before hand.

Im not saying he is wrong, but I am very hesitant to follow through with that claim. he SHOULD have pushed on that information yesterday. We were all running around with no information and he had that on his chest? just holding onto it? We would have lynched blade, if he was right he gets exonerated, and probably would die the following night, but that trade would be worth it for town. Now we are day later in the same situation, because he was eaten though we don't know if he spoke the truth, is pulling a herring for mafia, or whatever else.