Quote Originally Posted by Locust View Post
And here's the thing, there is no evidence. It's all conjecture based on what you think that person would do as mafia. Personally right now I SUSPECT Brett and Mikey for being the mafia as they're setting themselves up as the guys that "run the show" kind of. Also, scribble is shady as fuck too.
can't blame you there, i accepted the fact that being in the spotlight could make me a target, but i knew i had to try to sort things out if i wanted to win...which i do.

a lynch on day 1 benefits us if we lynch mafia/serial killer, benefits mafia if we lynch a fellow townie. we have no evidence on anyone, just playstyles which can be used to argue either way via circular reasoning. so we have no better odds than chance to lynch a mafia member instead of townie. we can assume there are more townies than mafia/killers, let's use an arbitrary number of 70% townies (works with any number over 50% which we are assuming). we have a 70% chance today of lynching a townie. a 70% chance to benefit mafia, and also harm ourselves. we have just a 30% chance to lynch a mafia/killer, benefiting us and hurting mafia. a no lynch vote obviously benefits mafia, as they won't lose a member, but it also benefits town, as we won't lose a member. that's 100% benefit to us, but also benefits mafia.

Lynch: 70% chance benefit mafia, 70% chance to hurt town
No lynch: 100% chance to benefit us and mafia (relative to lynching)

since there's a higher chance to ONLY benefit mafia by lynching, and especially with the likely blood mage a 100% chance to benefit us in comparison by not lynching, i'll take the no lynch option.