Look at it this way. If Nemesis is the journalist and Brett is the caroler, we've pretty much lost this game. One of them will die tonight, and the other will die the following. Yay. The best we'd be able to do is get either the journalist to manage finding the stalker or spy night 2 and a round of caroling OR 2 round of caroling, which would give us 1/3 of someone being scum The most we could find is 2 either way. Would the jester have a chance of showing up as the 1 scum? Cause that'd be fucked up. Given that we get lucky enough to find 2 scum, we'd still have 2 scum left. The only other power we have that'd be able to find scum would be the loudmouth. If the loudmouth manages to find a scum, we would have 1 left.
So if we lynch someone other then Nem tonight and miss we would have 7 left with 1 scum and no way of discovering them. Through RNG, those odds are 37.5% of winning said best case scenario. If I weren't so tired, I'd run the numbers of that actually happening. I'm sure most of you can see that even having that much of a chance is low. We would likely end up with 7 and 2 scum.
If we no lynch, we would have 8 alive with 1 or 2 scum. By the numbers, with 8, we'd have a better chance if we went against 1, but like I said we will most likely have 2 which again would make town much less likely to win.
If we no lynch and Sin is scum and Nemesis is scum, they could vouch for each other about the carol.
If Sin is town and nemesis is scum, nemesis could say Sin is lying.
Same thing the other way. If Sin is scum and Nemesis is town, Sin could say Nemesis is lying.
If both are town, we would have no way of knowing it. Their information is now unverifiable and unusable unless of them would be lynched.
This is why I feel we should lynch Nemesis. I think this scenario will end with town loss if both Journalist and Caroler are exposed this early.
Thoughts?
What: my life skills use meat
“Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed. ” -Mark Twain