020 Chameleon [100] v1.1.2

[Wolfenstinger]

I've never seen molecule evade show up in counsel, and I've kinda played the race a lot.

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In fact I know im right cause ive evaded shots, looked in counsel, and there is nothing there from that person. If it did register in counsel, then the hit is registered but discounted, which would allow abilities like bash, banish, etc. to proc on an evade, which they don't.

i'm talking about the guy shooting the person who evaded. You shouldn't see it as you avoided the damage, thus why you are alive and they are dead.

[Passarelli]

Like I said, I am fairly sure something strange is going on with the RNG at the moment. Long strings of evade and whatnot should only happen once a blue moon.

Chance for night elf to evade 1 shot: 30%
Chance to evade twice in a row: 9%
3 times: 2.7%
4 times: .81%
5 times: .24%
10 times: .00059%

I know that strings of evades at least this long happen with fairly common frequency. I'll test this out whenever I get a chance.

[Masskid]

i'm talking about the guy shooting the person who evaded. You shouldn't see it as you avoided the damage, thus why you are alive and they are dead.

I be late to this conversation :'(

The victim (guy being shot) will register 0 damage while the attacker (guy shooting) will see the full damage they would have done if the damage had gone through. I've done 200+ damage to a spiderman before and he walked away with about 70+ health. He managed to evade the head shot and my console even showed the damage.

PS Fuck Math

[CYBER]

I be late to this conversation :'(

The victim (guy being shot) will register 0 damage while the attacker (guy shooting) will see the full damage they would have done if the damage had gone through. I've done 200+ damage to a spiderman before and he walked away with about 70+ health. He managed to evade the head shot and my console even showed the damage.

PS Fuck Math

which brings us back to the chameleon demo above...
i was doing MORE than 300 damage , in MORE than 10 hits...

in other words, i wasnt just hitting with ONE shot or TWO shots with INSANE amounts of damage...
i was hitting an average of 30dmg per shot, in 10+hits...
and then it tells me i did for example 350dmg in 12 hits, and he STILL has more than 140hp out of his original 150hp WITHOUT invulnerability bcos i bought a lace every round...
and the game told me it was evaded... that's fine, at least i know it's evaded, but holy crap, a string of TWELVE evades back to back? without a single bullet hitting??? if u follow the probability that this string of evades occur back to back the way pass and i explained it (multiple times to the history-student-What) then this is just absurdly improbable with the current percentages in game... ON A CHAMELEON WHOSE SKILLS ARENT EVEN MAXXED YET IN THAT CATEGORY! so it can get worse?...


ALSO, the helm that u buy in game is different than an athena helm. the helm here is supposed to cut ur damage by a fraction by turning a headshot to a body shot... NOT completely evade the damage...
so how did i do more than 350 damage many many many many times, and his hp not bulging by more than a 10hp difference after emptying a full p90 or m4 in his chest/head...

again, im saying that smthn is really fucked up with the evade RNG on chameleon's set of points that jamal currently has, and he's proccing too many evades to be statistically possible.

[What]

Like I said, I am fairly sure something strange is going on with the RNG at the moment. Long strings of evade and whatnot should only happen once a blue moon.

Chance for night elf to evade 1 shot: 30%
Chance to evade twice in a row: 9%
3 times: 2.7%
4 times: .81%
5 times: .24%
10 times: .00059%

I know that strings of evades at least this long happen with fairly common frequency. I'll test this out whenever I get a chance.

You have the right idea, but thats not how the percentages work

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You're conflating probability with the percentage chance

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first shot-30% chance to evade
second- 30% chance to evade
third- 30% chance to evade
etc.

If you want to look at the odds of this happening, that is fine, but the chance to evade does not decrease per-successive shot

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ie your fourth shot in a row still has a 30% chance of being evaded, but the odds or probability that this occurs is .81%

[CYBER]

You have the right idea, but thats not how the percentages work

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You're conflating probability with the percentage chance

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first shot-30% chance to evade
second- 30% chance to evade
third- 30% chance to evade
etc.

If you want to look at the odds of this happening, that is fine, but the chance to evade does not decrease per-successive shot

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ie your fourth shot in a row still has a 30% chance of being evaded, but the odds or probability that this occurs is .81%

U'RE BOTH right ... and wrong.

the CHANCE or PROBABILITY of each of those evades REMAINS a 30% EACH time...because each event IS "independant" from the other.

however, what pass is trying to convey is that the chain of evades can be represented by:
probability of the second evade to occur AND the first evade occured.
which roughly translates to P(A AND B) = P(A). P(B)

so the probability of the first independent evade to proc is 30%.
the probability of the SECOND independent evade to proc is 30%.
However, the probability of BOTH the first AND the second back to back is 30% x 30%= 9% ..

so when u have a guy evading 10 shots in a row, it's true that the probabilty of each evade was 30%, however the probability of that CHAIN of evades is determined by the multiplication of all the other events.

you can also apply the bernouli theorem, more specifically using the geometric distribution and call "evaded" as "fail" and then "not evaded" as "success"... (in the enemy's point of view),

so if we apply the geomtric distribution

q^(k-1) x p

where q is the probability of evading (30/100)
p the probability of NOT EVADING (70/100).
and let's just assume that we're looking at the "5th" back to back evade.

if we apply the formula, after 5 back to back evades, the probability of NOT evading (finally) is:
((0.3)^(5-1)) x 0.7 = 0.00567


... and that is PRETTY significantly low...

so it SHOULDNT be that low, so it SHOULDNT be proccing 5 times back to back, and the fact remains that for some reason, a lot of people are able to proc these evades back to back, as if it's nothing, when in fact the RNG might be messed up...


PS: i really hate probability and statistics, but i just googled all that shit to refresh my memory.

[Passarelli]

U'RE BOTH right ... and wrong.

the CHANCE or PROBABILITY of each of those evades REMAINS a 30% EACH time...because each event IS "independant" from the other.

however, what pass is trying to convey is that the chain of evades can be represented by:
probability of the second evade to occur AND the first evade occured.
which roughly translates to P(A AND B) = P(A). P(B)

so the probability of the first independent evade to proc is 30%.
the probability of the SECOND independent evade to proc is 30%.
However, the probability of BOTH the first AND the second back to back is 30% x 30%= 9% ..

so when u have a guy evading 10 shots in a row, it's true that the probabilty of each evade was 30%, however the probability of that CHAIN of evades is determined by the multiplication of all the other events.

you can also apply the bernouli theorem, more specifically using the geometric distribution and call "evaded" as "fail" and then "not evaded" as "success"... (in the enemy's point of view),

so if we apply the geomtric distribution

q^(k-1) x p

where q is the probability of evading (30/100)
p the probability of NOT EVADING (70/100).
and let's just assume that we're looking at the "5th" back to back evade.

if we apply the formula, after 5 back to back evades, the probability of NOT evading (finally) is:
((0.3)^(5-1)) x 0.7 = 0.00567


... and that is PRETTY significantly low...

so it SHOULDNT be that low, so it SHOULDNT be proccing 5 times back to back, and the fact remains that for some reason, a lot of people are able to proc these evades back to back, as if it's nothing, when in fact the RNG might be messed up...


PS: i really hate probability and statistics, but i just googled all that shit to refresh my memory.

Thank you for spelling it out Cyber.

What, based on my math, it should have been obvious I was calculating the probability of that string occurring from the first shot. Not to mention I've spelled this out in the last couple days myself.
All of my math was simple exponents, because each event had the same chance of evading. The formula for this is f(p) = p^k

If you flip a coin 100 times, it has ~ a 50% chance of falling heads up each time.
The odds of you flipping heads 100 times in a row would be .5^100 which is 7.89 x e-31

Cyber's method is a little different then mine, but both say essentially the same thing--something is going on with the RNG.

[What]

Real life rarely follows the statistical probabilities, I have noticed abilities in general are going off quite frequently, but I don't see this as proving something is inherently flawed in the system

[kionay]

i find myself shying away from chameleon for no good reason

times like these make me wish i could just look at the code :-/

[ZERO]

1.1.2

• Made bash and roots work on flyers.