
Originally Posted by
Passarelli
Like I said, I am fairly sure something strange is going on with the RNG at the moment. Long strings of evade and whatnot should only happen once a blue moon.
Chance for night elf to evade 1 shot: 30%
Chance to evade twice in a row: 9%
3 times: 2.7%
4 times: .81%
5 times: .24%
10 times: .00059%
I know that strings of evades at least this long happen with fairly common frequency. I'll test this out whenever I get a chance.
You have the right idea, but thats not how the percentages work
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You're conflating probability with the percentage chance
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first shot-30% chance to evade
second- 30% chance to evade
third- 30% chance to evade
etc.
If you want to look at the odds of this happening, that is fine, but the chance to evade does not decrease per-successive shot
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ie your fourth shot in a row still has a 30% chance of being evaded, but the odds or probability that this occurs is .81%
I hit Brett right in the feels.