Blade's Beginner Game (9 Circles of Hell)

[StarsMine]

Zambi, it is day fucking 1. Of course it is a near baseless attempt to start a wagon. We need to get wagons going to get voting data started. You faggots being afraid to vote on shit is retarded. This is a game where the the primary weapon of town is voting, and you are all unwilling to vote? Seriously? So you are going to bury your head in the sand, let the mods decide who dies, and hope the mafia is stupid enough not to night kill?

Less than 3 days left and most of town is too spineless to commit to anything.

Well thats because at this point a nolynch is best for town(66% chance of hitting town, and a very high chance at night) unless someone gets tired of waiting and messes up bringing attention to themselves. IE you right now.
A nolynch doesnt mean a modkill, it means no lynch. No one is committing to that right now because we want to bait out the mafia.

[Passarelli]

Really? The old no lynch argument? Rellik isn't even in this game. Le sigh.

Star, are you talking about by the numbers? Sure, town might have about a 5% higher chance to win if we no lynch today straight by the numbers. Town's chance of winning that game is still less then 30%. The problem herein lies with if we have a spare no lynch or not.

If we lynch someone day 1 and mafia faction kills night 1, we will have 7 people day 2. d2 lynch, n2 fk = 5 people day 3. lose after miss lynch day 3.
If we no lynch someone d1 and mafia fk n1, we will have 8 people day 2. d2 lynch, n2 fk = 6 people day 3. lose after miss lynch day 3.

Would you rather have 3 chances to lynch mafia or only 2?

Not only that, but you are more likely to hit mafia each subsequent day by being able to look at vote data.

[Passarelli]

To humor you a little more, I'll even look at the chance to NOT hit mafia each day--first lynching each day followed by no lynch the first day.

d1 7/9. d2 5/7. d3 3/5. The odds of not hitting a mafia and losing by night 3 is: 7/9 * 5/7 * 3/5 = 105/315 = 33.3%
d1 9/9. d2 6/8. d3 is 4/6. The odds of not hitting a mafia and losing by night 3 is 9/9 * 6/8 * 4/6 = 24/48 = 50%

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Im silent due to lack of knowldge at this point. Reviewing the thread and cathing up for before i make a post and look like an utter clown.

By the by, 'reviewing and cathing up' likely won't make you look an less like Stephen King's IT. I'm going to start calling you Pennywise.

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any* less. God fucking damnit. >_>

[hoshiro-]

vote cyber

[Sin]

Vote Hoshiro

Dat gut feel. Peanut gallery. No reason for vote. Fishiest.

[DJ_MikeyRevile]

I suppose i need to start somewhere. Only thing i really saw looking over the thread was alot of baseless accusations and cyber talking in circles.

Vote Hosh

[CYBER]

Vote Hoshiro

Dat gut feel. Peanut gallery. No reason for vote. Fishiest.

He seems to have a stick up his ass against me for some reason... If only I knew who the fuck he was prior to last 2 games.

[StarsMine]

Vote Hoshiro[/B]


I think its 2 more votes after me?

[Trigger Unhappy]

vote Stars - most FOS at this point.

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vote stars

[I'm a zambi]

Can we get a vote count? I don't want to hammer Hosh without giving him a chance to defend himself.

[meta]he's been active on zmod (100%), according to his forum profile so there's no reason for him not to respond[/meta]

Also Trigger, why do you suspect Stars? The only reason I see is the no-lynch comment, but I don't really see an issue with a no-lynch early on; it would hurt town less than a mis-lynch if we get some kind of investigative role information. It's risky, but so is a mislynch if we misread someone and end up hitting a PR. I'll go with whatever you guys decide on, but like I said, it's risky either way.