WCS themed Mafia Game

[brett friggin favre]

And here's the thing, there is no evidence. It's all conjecture based on what you think that person would do as mafia. Personally right now I SUSPECT Brett and Mikey for being the mafia as they're setting themselves up as the guys that "run the show" kind of. Also, scribble is shady as fuck too.

can't blame you there, i accepted the fact that being in the spotlight could make me a target, but i knew i had to try to sort things out if i wanted to win...which i do.

a lynch on day 1 benefits us if we lynch mafia/serial killer, benefits mafia if we lynch a fellow townie. we have no evidence on anyone, just playstyles which can be used to argue either way via circular reasoning. so we have no better odds than chance to lynch a mafia member instead of townie. we can assume there are more townies than mafia/killers, let's use an arbitrary number of 70% townies (works with any number over 50% which we are assuming). we have a 70% chance today of lynching a townie. a 70% chance to benefit mafia, and also harm ourselves. we have just a 30% chance to lynch a mafia/killer, benefiting us and hurting mafia. a no lynch vote obviously benefits mafia, as they won't lose a member, but it also benefits town, as we won't lose a member. that's 100% benefit to us, but also benefits mafia.

Lynch: 70% chance benefit mafia, 70% chance to hurt town
No lynch: 100% chance to benefit us and mafia (relative to lynching)

since there's a higher chance to ONLY benefit mafia by lynching, and especially with the likely blood mage a 100% chance to benefit us in comparison by not lynching, i'll take the no lynch option.

[What]

Lynch: 70% chance benefit mafia, 70% chance to hurt town
No lynch: 100% chance to benefit us and mafia (relative to lynching)

since there's a higher chance to ONLY benefit mafia by lynching, and especially with the likely blood mage a 100% chance to benefit us in comparison by not lynching, i'll take the no lynch option.

You're wrong, there is no benefit to us for voting no lynch, it only injures the town, we will have no more useful information than we have now, and more people with be dead. The percentages are meaningless since it is not a random shot in the dark, and the continued use of them to validate an illogical thought does not reflect the town's best interests.

[brett friggin favre]

You're wrong, there is no benefit to us for voting no lynch, it only injures the town, we will have no more useful information than we have now, and more people with be dead. The percentages are meaningless since it is not a random shot in the dark, and the continued use of them to validate an illogical thought does not reflect the town's best interests.

no lynch doesn't directly harm town, especially in the case that we lynch a townie. no lynch in that case means one less townie dead, one more to fight mafia. day 2, we will have some amount of info, compared to what we have now. the ONLY reason that no lynch actually hurts us is because it benefits mafia, but even then, not as much as lynching a townie does, and that's the most likely scenario if we do lynch someone.

a lynch vote is a complete shot in the dark because as i stated, it would be based off of what people have said, and that can be taken to imply town or mafia depending on what point in the circular reasoning cycle you're in at the time. we have 0 solid evidence. none. shot in the dark.

[What]

and how is there solid evidence when day 2 begins?

[Nemesis]

and how is there solid evidence when day 2 begins?

Multiple investigators have actually had a chance to use their roles?

[What]

If we have a cop, it would likely be 1 cop, and even then they have to investigate someone who is mafia, and then let it be known and convince us they are not lying. That is also a shot in the dark, at some point chances must be taken, the longer the wait the less likely for success.

[CYBER]

Here's the thing.
SAY, for the sake of argument, that i voted for someone else, like Locust, or kept it at wolf etc...
it would STILL not move the story forward since no one else voting others...everyone is speculating and going for the no-lynch option. If there were more people voting others, such as the amount of people that speculated locust is mafia, then at least we'd have an ALTERNATIVE to the current track we're going on..

Hell, i even thought about voting "no lynch" just to move for the next day because i feel like we're going in circles on this (HERE COMES THE MAFIA ACCUSATIONS for thinking about a no lynch to move the story when i held my case that i really don't like it)...
I was even considering posting a no-lynch vote, just to see who's REALLY eager to put the last vote #8, odds are that this person would be a mafia eager to lock the votes permanently without ppl changing their minds...

It would have been a nice bait going on... but honestly i couldn't trust that u guys would see it as a set-up trap... if that's smthn that wolf did...then i would have most definitely had people on my back claiming that im mafia for suddenly changing to no lynch the same way i targetted wolf (which i now see as stupid on my part after almost doing the same shit he allegedly did)...

So now the question is: What the fuck do we do now? There's only 1 locust vote, and most people are tending to a no-lynch, should we just follow with the flow? I mean we have what ? 5 votes so far? There's no fucking way that they're all mafia... Maybe some deluded townies? but we're going in circles here. Either some people step up and start voting people and say WHY, or move along with the no-lynch and let's hope that no permanent damage is done. It's getting kinda stale.. and am i the only one noticing that many people are afk?


Nemesis:.... Something is bugging me about you, and i hope you don't take this the wrong way but it's smthn i noticed just after tom posted the current counts...:
For a guy REALLLLYYYYY ADVOCATING for a no lynch... why havent YOU voted for a no-lynch yet in the votes?... Why urge US to vote for it... and yet you haven't either... it's as if u have some kind of 2-votes-in-1 mafia vote, or a politician kind of vote that would let you shift votes to where you really want them towards the end, especially if you were the last guy to vote?
I honestly don't know all the possible mafia-powers to guess, but that's smthn i read from tom's shit, and we DO have a warden in the races ....

It's kinda bugging me out and i find it counter intuitive to your goal... so whats the deal here? (this is me asking you to convince me why i should vote no lynch and help move the story till the next day, when you still havent... because right now im just downright fucking confused with all the shit u and what are pulling)

Brett's been iffy for a while with his smooth talking, but i've yet to get that " wtf vibe" that im getting from locust, nemesis, and What when they talk... whether they mean it or not... maybe it's just that im used to brett making sense on ula thread as opposed to the others (scribble and clanners had almost low to no input),

but still nemesis...
you claim to be a good player, hell im sure u are, and im REALLY ... REALLY begging myself to believe that u're not playing dumb and actually have a plan in mind (and nemesis, considering our history, that's saying a lot)... but if we're just gonna sit down and have a stalemate, at least prove urself the good guy, or give me some insight as to why u strongly believe in ur tactic of no-lynch that it's the best scenario. Are you counting on a bloodmage? or some wcs skill that is most likely in game? etc...

The same for What... u outsmarted me last time in the game... (well, i kinda fucked myself over, u're not THAT smart), but i hate that between u and nemesis, im leaning towards your "no lynching is bad" idea based on tom's input... you know where i stand on this... but please tell us at least who to target if you feel like you know something that we don't... because, maybe its just me, but im confused as fuck now with my vote, and i feel like whether i voted or didn't vote, it's not getting us anywhere. So who do u have in mind? and please prove urself right the way im asking nemesis to.

oh and again... why the no vote nem? u 2 what.

[brett friggin favre]

If we have a cop, it would likely be 1 cop, and even then they have to investigate someone who is mafia, and then let it be known and convince us they are not lying. That is also a shot in the dark, at some point chances must be taken, the longer the wait the less likely for success.

or the cop could investigate someone who's innocent, and that's one person to not vote for.

what we will have is:

who the mafia killed
-what their motivations may have been
-most likely people to want that person gone
-deceased's role and race

who a killer may have killed
-deceased's role and race
-what caused that person to be a target
-most likely people to target them

-(general)-those less likely to be killer/mafia based on who was killed and why

and likely, one of those two could be brought back by a blood mage.

[What]

I have been holding off on voting waiting to see what develops but I guess I'll throw something up there.

I am positive that Nemesis is Mafia, or just a killer role, either way, no good. For the sake of moving things forward though,

I Vote Locust

He has consistently thrown votes around, expressing an eager and inexperienced player who doesn't care who dies or what happens as long as its not him. Why not Nemesis? I do not believe I can pull the votes for him at this time.

Also 90% sure Brett is also Mafia based on how he responds to his own changing opinions.

[Nemesis]

Why vote until I know I have the numbers? Also the longer it gets drawn out the more I learn.

I have also spelled it out several time Cyber, if you can't read then I can't help you.

Also What proves more and more that he's probably black and poor, which is hilarious.